Research tracker

What the minimum wage research finds — and why it disagrees

Thirty years of studies, in one place. Each entry has a short, neutral summary of the headline result. We make a strong case against wage floors elsewhere on this site; here, the job is to show the evidence as it is, including the parts that cut against us.

Reading the literature

Why careful economists reach different answers

The disagreement is not mostly about ideology. It comes from a handful of hard measurement problems. Knowing them makes any single headline easier to judge.

Who is the comparison group?

States that raise wages differ from those that don't. Border-county and trend-adjusted designs (Dube, Allegretto, Reich) tend to find small effects; critics (Neumark, Salas, Wascher) argue those controls throw away the variation that reveals job losses.

How much does the floor bite?

A modest increase where most workers already earn more is a different experiment from a large increase relative to local wages. Small, well-studied U.S. increases say little about very high floors.

Which workers are counted?

Teenagers, restaurant workers, all low-wage jobs, or the least-skilled adults: effects concentrated in a small group can disappear when averaged over a broader one.

Jobs, or something else?

Employers can adjust hours, prices, hiring, training, scheduling, or automation instead of headcount. Seattle's main signal was hours; Hungary's was prices; Germany's was workers moving between firms.

Short run or long run?

Some effects show up as slower job growth or fewer new businesses over years rather than layoffs on day one, which short before-and-after windows can miss.

Data and publication choices

Survey data versus payroll records, and which estimate a paper calls "preferred", can flip conclusions. Meta-analyses also find signs that published results lean toward significant negatives.

Where we stand Our reading: the evidence does not show that moderate increases always destroy large numbers of jobs, and honest advocates of abolition should say so. It does show real costs at the margin — fewer hours, slower hiring, fewer entry-level rungs — that grow with the size of the increase and fall on the least experienced. That is why we prefer tools like the EITC that raise incomes without raising the cost of a first job. The strongest counter-argument is monopsony.

The tracker

Major studies and reports

Filter by headline finding, search by author or place, and sort by year. Labels are our coarse summary of each study's main employment result, not a grade on its quality.

JavaScript is off Showing the full list without filters. The underlying data is also available as JSON.

Minimum wage studies
Year	Study	Setting	Finding
2026	Effects of a $20 Minimum Wage: Evidence from Granular Data on Wages, Employment, and Prices Michael Reich, Denis Sosinskiy · UC Berkeley IRLE working paper (builds on Sept. 2024 and Sept. 2025 versions)	California fast food chains vs. control states; Glassdoor, Square payroll, Advan mobility and scraped menu-price data	Little/no effect Finds that the $20 floor raised average weekly wages for covered fast food workers without reducing employment, with modest price increases. The authors interpret the results as consistent with a monopsony model.
2026	The Effects of California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices Jeffrey Clemens, Olivia Edwards, Jonathan Meer, Joshua D. Nguyen · NBER Working Paper 34990	21 U.S. metro areas, BLS food-away-from-home price indices, through Dec. 2024	Other margins Finds that food-away-from-home prices in California metro areas rose relative to control metros after the $20 fast food minimum wage, with no differential rise in placebo categories such as food at home.
2026	We've Got You Covered: Establishment-Level Evidence on California's Fast-Food Minimum Wage Vitor C. Melo, David Neumark, Liam Sigaud, Gary A. Wagner · NBER Working Paper 35749	California fast food establishments, establishment-level data identifying covered chains	Job loss Finds negative employment effects concentrated among small chains, where the policy also slowed entry and raised exit. The authors describe the overall employment effect so far as modest.
2025	Did California's Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? Jeffrey Clemens, Olivia Edwards, Jonathan Meer · NBER Working Paper 34033	California fast food sector vs. the rest of the U.S., QCEW data, Sept. 2023–Sept. 2024	Job loss Using government payroll data, finds that California fast food employment fell relative to fast food elsewhere in the U.S. after the $20 wage floor (AB 1228) was enacted, and estimates a sizable job loss relative to the counterfactual.
2024	Early Effects of California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage: Large Wage Increases with No Effects on Hours, Scheduling, or Benefits Daniel Schneider, Kristen Harknett, Kevin Bruey · The Shift Project, Harvard Kennedy School (research brief)	California fast food workers vs. California retail and other Western-state workers, worker surveys	Little/no effect Using worker surveys, finds substantial hourly wage gains for California fast food workers after April 2024, with no evidence of cuts to weekly hours, worse scheduling practices or reduced fringe benefits.
2024	Minimum Wage Employment Effects and Labour Market Concentration José Azar, Emiliano Huet-Vaughn, Ioana Marinescu, Bledi Taska, Till von Wachter · Review of Economic Studies 91(4) (NBER Working Paper 26101, 2019)	United States, low-wage retail jobs, occupation-level labor market concentration from online job postings	Mixed Finds that minimum wage employment effects are negative in less concentrated labor markets and become less negative, even positive, in the most concentrated ones. The authors read this as direct evidence for the monopsony explanation of small average effects.
2023	The Employment and Redistributive Effects of Reducing or Eliminating Minimum Wage Tip Credits David Neumark, Maysen Yen · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 42(4)	United States, state variation in tipped minimum wages	Job loss Finds that higher tipped minimum wages (smaller tip credits) reduce jobs among tipped restaurant workers without raising total earnings in the sector, and finds little evidence that they are well targeted to low-income families.
2022	Minimum Wages, Wages, and Price Pass-Through: The Case of McDonald's Restaurants Orley Ashenfelter, Štěpán Jurajda · Journal of Labor Economics 40(S1)	United States, McDonald's restaurant wages and Big Mac prices, 2016–2020	Other margins Finds that McDonald's restaurants passed higher minimum wage costs through into Big Mac prices. It finds no link between minimum wage hikes and adoption of touch-screen ordering, and no effect on restaurant entry or exit.
2022	Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States? David Neumark, Peter Shirley · Industrial Relations 61(4)	Systematic survey of U.S. studies published since the early 1990s	Job loss Compiles preferred estimates from dozens of studies and finds a clear majority are negative, with stronger effects for teens, young adults, and the less-educated. Critics dispute how 'preferred' estimates were chosen.
2022	Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage Christian Dustmann, Attila Lindner, Uta Schönberg, Matthias Umkehrer, Philipp vom Berge · Quarterly Journal of Economics 137(1)	Germany's 2015 introduction of a national minimum wage	Other margins Finds wages rose without measurable overall employment losses, and that low-wage workers shifted toward larger, more productive firms while some small low-paying firms exited.
2022	The Pass-Through of Minimum Wages into U.S. Retail Prices: Evidence from Supermarket Scanner Data Tobias Renkin, Claire Montialoux, Michael Siegenthaler · Review of Economics and Statistics 104(5)	United States, grocery and drug store scanner data, state increases 2001–2012	Other margins Finds that grocery prices rise after minimum wage increases by an amount consistent with full pass-through of the higher costs, with most of the adjustment occurring soon after the legislation passes rather than at implementation.
2021	The Budgetary Effects of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 Congressional Budget Office · CBO report	Raise the Wage Act of 2021 (S. 53): $15 federal minimum by 2025	Mixed Estimated employment would be about 1.4 million lower by 2025, while about 0.9 million fewer people would be in poverty and total pay for low-wage workers would rise on net.
2019	Impacts of Minimum Wages: Review of the International Evidence Arindrajit Dube · Independent report for HM Treasury (UK)	U.S., UK, and other developed-country evidence, commissioned to inform UK policy	Little/no effect Concludes that the most recent research points to small employment effects alongside meaningful earnings gains for low-paid workers, while cautioning that the evidence on high minimum wage levels is still developing.
2019	The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner, Ben Zipperer · Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3)	138 prominent U.S. state-level increases, 1979–2016	Little/no effect Using a 'bunching' approach that counts jobs below and just above the new minimum, finds that jobs lost below the new floor were roughly offset by jobs gained just above it, leaving overall low-wage employment largely unchanged over five years.
2019	The Effects on Employment and Family Income of Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Congressional Budget Office · CBO report	Hypothetical federal increases to $10, $12, or $15 by 2025	Mixed For a $15 federal minimum, CBO's median estimate was about 1.3 million fewer jobs (with a wide range from roughly zero to 3.7 million), alongside higher pay for about 17 million workers and about 1.3 million people lifted out of poverty.
2019	The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers Jeffrey Clemens, Michael Wither · Journal of Public Economics 170	2007–2009 federal increases in states where they were binding, during the Great Recession	Job loss Tracking individual workers, finds that binding increases reduced employment among directly affected low-wage workers and slowed their medium-run income growth, partly by limiting access to entry-level experience.
2019	Wage Shocks and the Technological Substitution of Low-Wage Jobs Daniel Aaronson, Brian J. Phelan · Economic Journal 129(617)	United States, low-wage occupations classified by task content	Other margins Finds that minimum wage increases lead to relative employment declines in cognitively routine low-wage occupations but not in manual or non-routine ones. The aggregate short-run effect is small because other low-wage jobs grow, but affected workers see relative wage losses.
2019	Who Pays for the Minimum Wage? Péter Harasztosi, Attila Lindner · American Economic Review 109(8)	Hungary's very large, roughly 60 percent minimum wage increase in 2001	Other margins Finds relatively small employment losses and that most of the added labor cost was passed on to consumers through higher prices, with a smaller share borne by firm owners. Job losses were larger in more exposed, tradable sectors.
2018	People Versus Machines: The Impact of Minimum Wages on Automatable Jobs Grace Lordan, David Neumark · Labour Economics 52	U.S. CPS data, 1980–2015, workers in automatable occupations	Other margins Finds that minimum wage increases reduce the share of automatable jobs held by low-skilled workers and raise the chance such workers lose their jobs, especially in manufacturing.
2018	The Minimum Wage, Fringe Benefits, and Worker Welfare Jeffrey Clemens, Lisa B. Kahn, Jonathan Meer · NBER Working Paper 24635	United States, American Community Survey, state minimum wage changes 2011–2016	Other margins Finds that state minimum wage increases reduced the likelihood that workers report employer-sponsored health insurance, especially in very low-paying occupations, offsetting part of the wage gains.
2017	Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies Sylvia Allegretto, Arindrajit Dube, Michael Reich, Ben Zipperer · ILR Review 70(3)	United States, state and county panel data on teens and restaurants, 1979–2014	Little/no effect Responds to Neumark, Salas & Wascher (2014), arguing that negative teen employment estimates mostly reflect differing pre-existing state trends and that designs correcting for them find small effects. Published alongside a reply by Neumark and Wascher; the methods dispute remains open.
2017	Minimum Wage Increases, Wages, and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle Ekaterina Jardim, Mark C. Long, Robert Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob Vigdor, Hilary Wething · NBER Working Paper 23532 (published in AEJ: Economic Policy, 2022)	Seattle's phased increase to $13 (2016), using Washington State hours-level administrative data	Hours reduction Finds the step to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs by roughly 9 percent, so total payroll for those jobs fell even as hourly pay rose. Later work by the team found experienced workers gained while new entries declined.
2017	Seattle's Minimum Wage Experience 2015–16 Michael Reich, Sylvia Allegretto, Anna Godoey · UC Berkeley Center on Wage and Employment Dynamics (policy brief)	Seattle food-service sector, early phases of the city ordinance	Little/no effect Finds that food-service pay rose with no detectable decline in food-service employment — a contrasting result to the University of Washington team released around the same time.
2016	Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment Dynamics Jonathan Meer, Jeremy West · Journal of Human Resources 51(2)	U.S. state minimum wages and establishment-level job growth	Job loss Finds that minimum wage increases reduce the growth rate of employment over several years rather than causing an immediate drop in levels, which short-window studies may miss.
2014	Revisiting the Minimum Wage–Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater? David Neumark, J. M. Ian Salas, William Wascher · ILR Review 67 (supplement)	U.S. teen and restaurant employment; reassessment of border-county and trend-control methods	Job loss Argues that the controls used in border-county and trend-adjusted studies discard valid variation; with alternative comparison groups, negative teen employment effects reappear.
2012	Are the Effects of Minimum Wage Increases Always Small? New Evidence from a Case Study of New York State Joseph J. Sabia, Richard V. Burkhauser, Benjamin Hansen · ILR Review 65(2)	New York's 2004–2006 increase from $5.15 to $6.75	Job loss Using a synthetic-style comparison of neighboring states, finds sizable employment declines among less-educated young workers. The estimates were later disputed in a published reanalysis.
2011	Do Minimum Wages Really Reduce Teen Employment? Accounting for Heterogeneity and Selectivity in State Panel Data Sylvia Allegretto, Arindrajit Dube, Michael Reich · Industrial Relations 50(2)	U.S. teen employment, state panel data	Little/no effect Once controls for regional and state-specific trends are added, teen employment effects shrink toward zero while wage effects remain.
2010	Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties Arindrajit Dube, T. William Lester, Michael Reich · Review of Economics and Statistics 92(4)	U.S. county pairs straddling state borders, 1990–2006, restaurants and low-wage sectors	Little/no effect Comparing adjacent counties across state lines, finds earnings rise with no detectable employment loss; argues that standard state-panel methods confound minimum wage effects with regional trends.
2009	Publication Selection Bias in Minimum-Wage Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis Hristos Doucouliagos, T. D. Stanley · British Journal of Industrial Relations 47(2)	Meta-regression of published U.S. employment elasticity estimates	Little/no effect Finds evidence that published estimates are skewed toward negative, statistically significant results; after correcting for that selection, the average employment effect is close to zero.
2008	Minimum Wages David Neumark, William Wascher · MIT Press (book)	Survey of U.S. and international evidence	Job loss Reviews the literature and argues that most credible studies find negative employment effects concentrated among the least-skilled, and that minimum wages are a poorly targeted anti-poverty tool.
2008	The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure Daniel Aaronson, Eric French, James MacDonald · Journal of Human Resources 43(3)	United States, store-level and aggregate CPI restaurant price data	Other margins Finds that restaurant prices rise after minimum wage increases. The authors argue that rising prices are what a competitive labor market predicts, and read the result as evidence against monopsony as the explanation for small employment effects.
2001	Price Pass-Through and the Minimum Wage Daniel Aaronson · Review of Economics and Statistics 83(1)	United States and Canada, restaurant prices	Other margins Studies how restaurant prices respond to minimum wage increases and finds that higher labor costs are passed through into menu prices, an early reference point for the price-adjustment margin.
2000	Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment David Neumark, William Wascher · American Economic Review 90(5)	Same New Jersey–Pennsylvania episode, using restaurant payroll records	Job loss Using payroll records rather than phone-survey data, finds that New Jersey's increase reduced fast-food employment relative to Pennsylvania.
2000	Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply David Card, Alan B. Krueger · American Economic Review 90(5)	Same episode, using BLS administrative (ES-202) employment data	Little/no effect Responds with administrative data covering more restaurants and concludes the increase had a small or no effect on New Jersey fast-food employment; questions the payroll sample used in the comment.
1995	Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage David Card, Alan B. Krueger · Princeton University Press (book)	U.S. state and federal increases; re-examination of earlier time-series studies	Little/no effect Collects several case studies and reanalyses arguing that moderate minimum wage increases had little measurable effect on employment, and that earlier evidence was weaker than commonly believed.
1994	Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania David Card, Alan B. Krueger · American Economic Review 84(4)	New Jersey's 1992 increase from $4.25 to $5.05, with eastern Pennsylvania as a comparison	Little/no effect Surveying fast-food restaurants before and after the increase, finds no reduction in New Jersey employment relative to Pennsylvania. The study launched the modern 'new minimum wage research' debate.
1992	Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws David Neumark, William Wascher · ILR Review 46(1)	United States, state minimum wage variation, 1973–1989	Job loss Using state panel data, estimates employment elasticities for teens and young adults of roughly −0.1 to −0.2 with respect to the minimum wage. Became a reference point for the 'conventional' negative-effect view.
1982	The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment Charles Brown, Curtis Gilroy, Andrew Kohen · Journal of Economic Literature 20(2)	United States, survey of time-series and cross-section evidence through the late 1970s	Job loss Surveys theory and the early empirical literature, concentrating on teenagers. Concluded that the evidence pointed to a modest negative effect of the minimum wage on teen employment, a benchmark later work was measured against.

This list is curated and not exhaustive; it favors influential, frequently cited work on both sides. Summaries are simplified — read the originals for methods and exact estimates. Data: data/studies.json. Last updated October 2026.

What the minimum wage research finds — and why it disagrees

Why careful economists reach different answers

Who is the comparison group?

How much does the floor bite?

Which workers are counted?

Jobs, or something else?

Short run or long run?

Data and publication choices

Major studies and reports

Go deeper on this site